Reentry Predictions

CZ-5B Rocket Body (ID 48275) Reentered

Reentry Prediction
Predicted Reentry Time	09 May 2021 03:02 UTC ± 2 hours Timezone
Orbit Epoch	08 May 2021 20:34:12.101 UTC
Prediction Ground Track

Legend

Yellow Icon – location of object at predicted reentry time
Orange Line – area of visibility at the predicted reentry time for a ground observer
Blue Line – ground track uncertainty prior to predicted reentry time (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Yellow Line – ground track uncertainty after predicted reentry time (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
White Line – day/night divider at predicted reentry time (Sun location shown by White Icon)
Pink Icon – vicinity of eyewitness sighting
Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track.

Note: The ground traces shown in the above image extend the full uncertainty window.

CZ-5B R/B (ID 48275) Predicted Reentry Time History — This plot shows the history of our reentry time predictions for the CZ-5B rocket body compared with the actual reentry time reported by SpaceTrack. Each red dot represents a new TLE that was then used to produce the corresponding reentry time prediction. The solid green line represents the actual reported reentry time, and the dashed green lines represent the typical +/- 20% time-until-reentry window. As shown by the plot, our predictions were steady throughout the week leading to a final predicted reentry window that included the reported reentry time. This final predicted reentry window was made from the last available TLE around 5 hours and 30 minutes prior to the reported reentry time.

Aerospace's reentry prediction compared with reported reentry sites. — This image shows the reported reentry sites by both SpaceTrack (May 9, 2:14 UTC) and the CMSEO (May 9, 2:24 UTC), as well as Aerospace Corporation's reentry prediction as of May 8, 20:34 UTC. Both reported reentry sites fall on the same revolution predicted by the Aerospace Corporation within 50 minutes of the center of the predicted reentry time window. This is well within the +/- 2 hour reentry window.

Object Description
Reentry Type	Rocket Body
Int'l Designation	2021-035B
NORAD Number	48275
Launched	29 April 2021 @ 03:23 UTC
Mission	Tianhe

NOTICE: The materials about Upcoming Reentries are for informational purposes only and should not be used as a substitute for specific technical advice or opinions related to your particular facts and circumstances.