Launched by the Soviet Union in March 1972 to visit Venus, the Cosmos 482 lander never made it out of orbit. Shortly after entering space, the Cosmos spacecraft broke into multiple pieces, and more than 50 years later, the probe is making a final descent this week through Earth’s atmosphere to return home.
Experts at Aerospace's Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (CORDS) are closely tracking the expected (but uncontrolled) reentry of Cosmos 482 and updating their predictions of its reentry path as new data becomes available.
In the meantime, read on for more information about how we track debris reentries, what we know about Cosmos 482 and what we expect might happen.
Our latest prediction: 1:54 AM ET on May 10
Based on the most recent data, the current CORDS estimate for the reentry of the Cosmos 482 lander is within 4 hours of 1:54 AM on Saturday, May 10. (Note: Because the expected reentry time is around midnight, reentry could still occur on either Friday or Saturday, despite the actual estimate only shifting by a few hours.)
As Cosmos 482’s orbit continues to decay, its projected ground track and the period of uncertainty are both shrinking. It will land beneath one of the yellow or blue lines on our map, much of which still goes over the ocean. As we approach the predicted time of reentry, the uncertainty window will continue to reduce significantly, and we will have a closer idea both of the reentry time and location.
We will update this tracking page regularly with our latest predictions until Cosmos 482 reenters. (Learn more about reading the prediction image below. And note that times on that page are in UTC!)
FAQ on Cosmos 482 and reentry events
What do we know about the Cosmos 482 probe lander?
The object we are tracking is one of four pieces of debris identified after the Cosmos 482 spacecraft (also known as Kosmos 482 and Venera 8) failed on orbit. NASA records list the Cosmos probe weighing in at 495 kg, and being similar in design to its predecessor, the Venera 7 probe that successfully entered Venus’ atmosphere in 1970. Because Cosmos 482 is defunct, we expect it to perform an uncontrolled reentry as Earth’s atmosphere finally causes its orbit to decay, versus landing deliberately in the ocean or in a remote area.
Do you expect Cosmos 482 to actually hit the surface somewhere?
Because it was originally designed to land on Venus—a much harsher atmosphere and environment to survive than Earth’s—it is possible Cosmos 482 could survive reentry to the extent that parts of it strike the surface rather than burn up entirely.
Should I be concerned? What risk does this pose to people on the ground?
While the risk is nonzero, any one individual on Earth is far likelier to be struck by lightning than to be injured by Cosmos 482. For context, the U.S. government’s standard threshold for potential uncontrolled reentries (established well after Cosmos’ 1972 launch) is that risk of a serious injury or death occurring on the ground be less than 1 in 10,000. Cosmos 482 is smaller and lighter than other objects Aerospace typically raises awareness about concerning their reentries. If it remains intact all the way to the surface, we project a risk of 0.4 in 10,000 — which falls well within the current safety threshold.
How likely is Cosmos to land in my yard? And if it does, can I keep it?
We definitely do not expect Cosmos 482 to land in your yard specifically. Given the nature of its orbit, most of the Earth is still in play for its reentry, and consequently it is far more likely to land in the ocean or an unpopulated area.
If Cosmos defies the odds and does land in your yard, please don’t touch it! It could potentially be hazardous, and it is best to notify your local authorities. As for keeping it, don’t get your hopes up. There is a United Nations treaty that governs found debris—the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. It states that countries keep ownership of objects they launch into space, even after those objects reenter and return to Earth. The country that launched the object in this case is Russia, which could request the return of any parts that survived reentry. It is also worth noting that the treaty says that the launching country is also internationally liable for damages.
What are some of the potential geopolitical ramifications of an uncontrolled reentry?
There can be international ramifications for uncontrolled reentries. In 1978, the Soviet satellite Cosmos 954 reentered over Canada and deposited radioactive material along its reentry footprint. Fortunately, the region was not highly populated. The Canadian government billed the Soviet Union for expenses. This is why it is important that all space operators behave responsibly, as their actions can affect other nations.
Tracking Debris
How do I read your prediction graphic?
Our reentry prediction images show the prediction window as one continuous path on the world map. The object is predicted to reenter anywhere along the blue or yellow paths, with the yellow “circles” icon indicating the midpoint of our latest reentry prediction window. In the image:
- The yellow icon is the location of the object at the midpoint of the predicted reentry window
- The blue line shows the ground track uncertainty prior to the middle of the reentry window; each tick mark is a five-minute interval
- The yellow line is the ground track uncertainty after the middle of the reentry window; each tick mark is a five-minute interval
- If applicable, a pink icon indicates the vicinity of an eyewitness sighting or recovered debris,
- If applicable, a red icon shows Space Track’s predicted location of reentry
If a reentry is confirmed, we will update our prediction graphics with confirmed or reported sightings, designated by pink icons. Right now, though, as noted above and as indicated by the image, the reentry window covers much of the Earth.
How do we know when and where debris will land?
The data sets our team uses to make predictions are generated when an object being tracked passes over one of a collection of sensors across the planet. The Space Surveillance Network (SSN) is operated by the U. S. Space Force and tracks objects in space. The SSN has radar and optical sensors at various sites around the world; these sensors observe and track objects that are larger than a softball in low Earth orbits, and basketball-sized or larger objects in higher, geosynchronous orbits. The system can determine which orbit the objects are in and that information is used to predict close approaches, reentries, and the probability of a collision. Other nations also run space object tracking systems.
Are reentries visible from the ground?
Reentries can be visible from the ground if they hit in the right place and at the right time. If the reentry happens over the ocean or an unpopulated region of land it is unlikely people can see it. If it happens over a populated region, it helps if it’s dark. The darkness makes it easier to see the pieces of debris because they tend to be glowing with heat from their high-speed descent through the atmosphere.
Can people report sighting a reentry?
Yes! We greatly appreciate sighting reports. Sighting information can help us pin down the location of the reentry and improve our models for the next reentry. Enter your sighting via our submission form.
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