The era of super heavy lift (SHL) vehicles, such as SpaceX's Starship and Blue Origin's New Glenn, isn't quite here. But when it does arrive, it could end up producing a whole new space economy — if the companies can successfully navigate its complexities.

A new report from Aerospace's Center for Space Policy and Strategy, by Karen Jones et al., examines and compares the SHL vehicles under development, looking at everything from their technical specs to the patterns and philosophies shown by their creators.

One key insight is how much this seemingly cutting-edge field has in common with ordinary logistics. To move more goods around, we don't just build bigger trucks, and to move less we don't have tiny trains. These two modes of transport have been optimized for different parts of a larger ecosystem of goods and demand. In a similar fashion, SHLs are unlikely to replace smaller vehicles for some tasks but will be the only reasonable option for others.

For instance, if you are launching tens of thousands of identical satellites — as an increasing number of organizations and countries plan to do — than its perfectly into the SHL's specialties: bulk, low-cost mass to orbit and standardized deployment. But unusual orbits or timing will still be best served by smaller, more responsive launches.

"The here-and-now revenue generation opportunities lie with broadband constellations and connectivity plays, basically building out their current constellations," Jones told Ars Technica. "They can kind of grow the business, and then from that platform, and from that success, some of these more speculative ventures might be able to springboard from that."

But it may be premature to try to count all the SHL chickens before they hatch. It's commonly suggested that something like a weekly Starship launch would enable entirely new business models and demand that we never even considered before that.

This leads to something of a Catch-22. As the paper puts it:

The markets are not practicable without SHL, but SHL may not be sustainable without the market. The key question is, at what point will these markets emerge and drive enough demand for the launch costs SHL might generate?

No one claims to know the answer, but one hint can be found in vertical integration of launch with space-based services. A company like SpaceX can serve a market of its own creation — Starlink — to bridge the gap between today's demand and tomorrow's. Will Blue Origin, or Rocket Lab, or for that matter China with its Long March SHLs, also pursue interim markets like this?

It's outside the scope of this paper, but Jones said she does expect this emerging market-driven launch economy to produce healthy competitors:

"One company seems to be ahead right now, but whether you’re first to market or a fast follower, I think we would all benefit from seeing this competition."